Monday 18 August 2014

Besiktas preview: find that rhythm


Evening folks.

It's Besiktas away tomorrow and the team has already travelled to Turkey. We are, however, in a spot of trouble with some of our players sidelined, so picking a capable starting eleven can prove to be tough.

Goalkeeping

No doubt in my mind Szczesny will start. Had Ospina been fit I wouldn't be so sure, but with the Colombian international still nursing a thigh injury, he wasn't even included. Ospina, like Walcott, will miss both qualifiers.

However, Szczesny definitely needs to be told by Arsene to keep his game safe and simple. The stakes are too high and it will be hard to get a positive result in any case, we don't want to make our life harder by serving Besiktas a couple of blunders on a silver platter.

Defense

It pretty much picks itself and it's scary. We could potentially end up without Koscielny (achilles) and Gibbs (hamstring), so only four senior defenders will be available: Debuchy, Chambers, Mertesacker and Monreal.
"We will assess Koscielny on Monday; if he's fit and capable to play, we play him. It was our plan to bring the Germans back in contention for Everton. But in case of emergency I will take Mertesacker.
"But we have Bellerin, who was 19 today, who can come in. We are a bit short. I hope Koscielny responds well to today's game."
Such a summary gives me the creeps. No word on Gibbs, Koscielny is a doubt and Mert is short on fitness and could be rushed back anyway. When Arsene brought up Bellerin it became painfully obvious just how short we are in the defensive department.

Why haven't we addressed it earlier? It was obvious Vermaelen will go (he was injured anyway) and that Debuchy, Koscielny and Mertesacker will all have a short pre-season. Yes, we've brought Chambers in (as a right-back, mind you) and that is why we are still afloat. He can play defensive midfield, right-back and centre-back, so I don't expect further arrivals in the first two areas, but we were always going to end up short in the middle now that Vermaelen's tenure has drawn to a close.

I'm all for promoting Bellerin, don't get me wrong. He's impressed during the Emirates Cup and it will only be sensible to have the Spaniard in the first squad, as it allows Chambers to cover at centre-back if needed, but even in that case we only have 7 defenders, two of which are 19. A further addition is vital, even if the player won't play against Besiktas. As for the Turks, what we have, we hold. Fingers crossed Koscielny is all right and will still be after the game.





Midfield

Arteta and Ramsey should definitely start, but who'll play alongside them is a question. Wenger said something about Wilshere not being fully fit and cited this as a reason behind the Englishman's substitution, but I expect Jack to start nonetheless. He played well in our last two games, so no reason to drop him. If, however, he's not well, then we can only speculate on who will replace Jack. I'd say Rosicky is the best option, as he's like-for-like, but will the Czech be able to play a full game?

We can also play Cazorla there, though I'm treating this choice with caution. Cazorla wasn't at his best (to put it mildly) in the last game and, what is more, I'm convinced Besiktas will get physical on us. We should thus put our most fragile and valuable players out of the firing line, if possible.

Attack

Alexis will play, that bit I'm sure of, but both his on-field position and partners will be hard to guess. Is Arsene willing to go with his usual scheme and deploy a target man, or will he want to break on the counter? In second-case scenario, Alexis will start as a lone forward, with Oxlade and Cazorla/Campbell on either side of him. It'll probably also mean we'll give the ball away and let Besiktas come at us. It's a rather energy-consuming strategy, one which will require everyone to work hard in defense and the defense itself will have to be perfect to hold out.

With us being down to bare bones in defensive department it presents a risk: we'll play four guys who may not have played together before and will ask them to hold the fort. However, such a strategy also has a huge upside: we won't have to be fluent in our passing, only quick and ruthless on the counter.

The first scenario (playing with a target man) looks a more likely alternative to me. It won't put so much pressure on the defense, we won't have to change our style of play and the physicality of Giroud/Sanogo will ensure we won't get bullied as much.

In that case, Sanchez will probably start on the right and we'll see one of the Frenchmen as a spearhead. I guess it'll be a question of who's fitter, rather than who's better (at the moment), so it's hard to predict, who'll start. I'd go with Giroud, as he has improved our game against Palace immediately after coming on, but only if Olivier is fully fit. Otherwise it's Sanogo.

The left flank has the biggest question mark over it's head. We can play Oxlade there, Cazorla can start if the manager is willing to risk the Spaniard, while it won't come as a huge shock if Arsene decides to give Cambell a run-out.

I've thought long and hard about where the Costa-Rican might fit in and come to the only plausible (to me) conclusion: if Arsene will play Joel, then he'll do so on the left. On the right, Campbell will have at least two seniors in front of him: Sanchez and Oxlade for now, Oxlade and Walcott when the latter gets fit. Through the middle, it's Giroud and Sanogo and Sanchez at some point), while on the left it's Cazorla and Podolski. And these two seem less scary.

I mean, Cazorla will start most games on the left, but Podolski is definitely a sub. Moreover, the German's future may lie elsewhere, so he may just be not as motivated to fight for his place. And even if he is motivated, Campball still stands a chance. If he manages to push Podolski down the pecking order, then Joel will become a natural sub to Cazorla, should the latter sustain an injury or find himself out of form.

I also think Campbell is talented enough to compete with at least Podolski. This is what Arteta said a couple of days back on the Costa-Rican:
"I'm very impressed with Joel Campbell. He's got great feet, great technique, he's very creative and he's a young lad who is full of energy and is enthusiastic. He wants to stay here, he wants to make his stamp here and I think the boss is going to give him a chance."
Well, here we are. Campbell should be given a chance, so why not give him one tomorrow?

That's pretty much it in terms of squad. We definitely have options in midfield and attack and let's keep our fingers crossed we get through with the defense we have. Besiktas will have the benefit of home fans, while their players will also be fresher, as few have participated in the World Cup, but the gulf in quality remains. Now we only need to prove it on the pitch.

So c'mon you Gunners.

And I'll be back here in two days with a review.

Until then

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